World Trade and Natural Rubber

Gao Yan, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation, said here today that the 16th meeting of the Working Party on China’s Accession to the World Trade Organization, held from June 28 to July 4 in Geneva, has been reached on major issues left in multilateral negotiations. Full consensus. She said that this shows that substantive negotiations on China’s accession to the WTO have already been completed. The 17th China Working Group meeting to be held on July 16th will review the finalized legal documents of China's accession to the WTO - Protocol and Working Group Report. The footsteps of China's accession to the WTO are approaching, and what will happen to the rubber market in the rubber industry after China's entry into the WTO? Here we will make a brief analysis of the relevant policies of the WTO and the specific conditions of our rubber industry rubber market.
Basic WTO Basics The two basic principles of the WTO: The main objective of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is to provide sufficient opportunities for competition among members of the trade and to establish two basic principles for this purpose, namely, the principle of most-favored nation treatment and the principle of national treatment. . Most-favored-nation treatment guarantees that all members enjoy equal opportunities for competition. National treatment ensures that the products of the exporting country and the products of the importing country enjoy equal opportunities for competition.
The relevant provisions of the WTO stipulate that all members should open up their markets in a reciprocal manner; all members should not use unfair trade methods to develop foreign trade to compete, in particular, they must not sell their products in an inclined and subsidized manner; the trade of all members Policies and regulations must be transparent.
In terms of trade in goods, the main WTO rules are rules on tariffs and non-tariff measures. The WTO has laid down rules for lowering tariffs and committing to the tariff ceiling of different products. Non-tariff measures do not allow universal use. For example, a member must generally not prohibit or restrict the import or export of goods.
To ensure the continuity of competitive opportunities, the WTO opposes unfair trade practices and provides measures to protect fair trade. In international trade, there are sometimes disguised trade barriers, such as an unnecessarily high standard for product quality or performance, or an overestimate of the value of imported products to impose unreasonably high tariffs. Or use other means to weaken the competitiveness of imported products. While enjoying rights, China should also fulfill its obligations in accordance with WTO rules. Mainly reflected in: In terms of goods, etc., according to the provisions of the WTO, other members are given the most favored nation treatment, national treatment. In accordance with regulations, we will expand the degree of market access for goods and services, that is, reduce tariffs and regulate non-tariff measures as required, gradually expand the opening of the service trade market, and standardize investment measures for foreign investment in the trade of goods...
Impact of China's Accession to WTO According to a study by the Task Force of the "Currency of Supply and Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism", there are three main factors affecting the exchange rate of the RMB in the near term: Changes in net exports, the use of foreign capital, and interest rates in China and abroad. .
(1) The report regresses on the real effective exchange rate index and finds that for each additional US$100 million in net exports, the real effective exchange rate index rises by approximately 0.11.
(2) For every 100 million U.S. dollars of foreign direct investment after seasonal adjustment, the real effective exchange rate index rose by 0.7. It is generally estimated that foreign direct investment in China this year can reach 48 billion U.S. dollars, which is 7 billion U.S. dollars more than last year. Compared with the number of exports, foreign direct investment increased the upward pressure on the exchange rate of the RMB, which is enough to offset the downward pressure on the exchange rate from the decline in exports.
(3) The U.S. dollar exchange rate has been adjusted downwards for many times, and the gap between the U.S. dollar and the U.S. dollar interest rate has become even closer. This is also an important condition conducive to the stability of the U.S. currency exchange rate and may even be an appreciation. If the RMB exchange rate rises relatively, it will affect the import of natural rubber. In addition will also affect the relevant automotive industry, petroleum and synthetic rubber industry.
The State Council of China will hold a large-scale "International Conference on Developers and Policies in Western China" in Hong Kong on July 12. It will announce for the first time the latest policy measures and implementation details of the upcoming Western Development. Xu Weihe, deputy director of the State Information Center, revealed that the State Council is setting the details of the latest policy measures for the development of the western region, and will be announced at the seminar in July, and the preferential policies for the development of the western region will not be cancelled after the accession to the WTO. The major policy will be maintain. The development of the western region will promote the automobile transportation and building materials. This will increase the demand for natural rubber.
With China's accession to the WTO approaching, in 2000, the state stipulated that natural rubber import tariffs will drop sharply from the current 25% to 5% in 2004, and will drop to 0 in 2006; while the tariffs in import quotas have now dropped to 12%. The quota will also be abolished in 2005, and import tariffs will decrease by an average of 5% each year. This move has led to more imports of rubber imports from the domestic market share of natural rubber, natural rubber imports, especially low-tarn imports of natural rubber will increase. This put pressure on domestic rubber prices.
After China's accession to the WTO, the "zero tax rate" is applied to export products. Li Wantang, deputy director of the State Administration of Taxation, stated that in order to welcome to the WTO, China’s taxation system must actively modify and remove components that are clearly inconsistent with its rules, but it must also flexibly use WTO provisions to fully realize tax regulation without violating its basic rules. To protect the development of domestic industries, promote the adjustment of economic structure, and create conditions for the fair competition of enterprises. Specifically speaking, it is to convert value-added tax from the existing production-oriented main to consumer-oriented, in order to reduce the production costs of domestic enterprises and promote the development of high-tech enterprises; to implement products with international comparative advantages such as building materials products, etc. Accelerated depreciation and other indirect taxation-based preferential policies; the implementation of "zero tax rate" on exports. Export products entering export processing zones are subject to tax rebates to enhance their price competitiveness. After entering the WTO, a complete "zero tax rate" will be implemented.
Eight kinds of living consumption will lower prices after entering the WTO. Among the rubber-related ones are: (1) House prices will fall. According to the provisions of the GATT, foreign construction companies can enter the construction market in China on an equal footing, which is a great threat to domestic construction companies in terms of capital, technology and management. It is an inevitable trend for domestic construction companies to improve service quality, technology content and reduce product prices. (2) The decline in the price of imported automobiles should become a trend. After China's accession to the WTO, car prices have fallen to a level close to the international level. Coupled with product diversification and deeper service, people will undoubtedly get more benefits. However, it takes time to cut prices and it needs a process. (3) The cost of Internet access will be reduced: In the Sino-U.S. agreement concluded, China agrees that foreign investors will enter China's telecommunications service industry, which means that China Telecom’s monopoly position will be broken. At present, the most popular thing for netizens is that China allows foreign investors to inject ICP (Internet Content Provider). This means that under the pressure of strong competition, Internet access fees will be considerably reduced. This will promote the development of domestic e-commerce and will also promote the trade circulation of our domestic rubber industry.
After joining the WTO, some foreign-funded enterprises may adjust their business strategies, from direct investment to commodity exports.
According to statistics, China currently has only six industries ready for the WTO accession. They are: electronic equipment, home electronics, some electronic communication services, processed food, packaged consumer products and the textile industry. So many industries are not yet ready, such as: agriculture, automobiles, finance and insurance, securities, chemicals, distribution, energy, Internet services, medicine, steel and so on. In our view, the preparation of our rubber industry is also of different levels.
After China's accession to the WTO, agricultural pressure was great. According to estimates of the World Bank, China’s share of world trade will increase from the current 4.5% to 6.2% in the first five years of China’s accession to the WTO; in the first five years after China’s accession to the WTO, GDP will increase by an additional 0.5-2%. After China's accession to the WTO, the renminbi has not only no depreciation pressure, but has the potential for appreciation (due to the influx of large amounts of foreign capital), and soon the renminbi has become an international circulating currency and is no longer a weak currency. Our natural rubber and agriculture are also linked, which is worth noting.
State-owned enterprise reform: It is estimated that in the first five years of China’s accession to the WTO, more than half of the state-owned enterprises left this year will be eliminated and about 15 million state-owned enterprises will be laid off; in addition to the impact of agriculture, an estimated 5 million to 10 million farmers are unemployed The population of the newly added labor force is about 20 million. In the next five years, the society must arrange employment for 40 million unemployed people. Many of our rubber farms are state-owned and their impact on the future should not be small.
The construction industry will be difficult to reach the international impact. After China's accession to the WTO, once a large number of foreign construction companies have entered, it will most likely be like "McDonald's" forming an annihilating trend. Li Jiankuo, general manager of Shanghai Tunnels Singapore Co., Ltd., said that China's construction companies may not be technically inferior to foreign companies. However, they are not far behind their foreign counterparts in terms of competitiveness, risk resistance and organizational capabilities.
Concluding remarks The above are the various impacts on China's economy that we have exhibited related to the rubber industry's "WTO entry". In order to facilitate the reference of various types of enterprises in the rubber industry, attention has been paid to it. We hope that through their own efforts, enterprises will grasp the opportunities of the World Trade Organization and meet the challenges of the WTO. (Packaging newspaper)

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