2012 China Packaging Industry Investment Market Research Perspective

As an independent industry system, the packaging industry is listed as a national development plan. In the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, “Renovation and Improvement of Manufacturing Industry” puts forward: “The packaging industry should accelerate the development of advanced packaging equipment, packaging new materials and packaging products. According to the data analysis of China Packaging Industry Association, the annual packaging sales in the world is about 5,000-600 billion US dollars, accounting for 1.5% to 2.2% of the gross national product. Usually the packaging industry in developed countries belongs to the ninth or the The top ten industries, the packaging industry and products in developing countries have an annual growth rate of more than 10%. By 2014, the global packaging market will increase from 429 billion US dollars in 2009 to 530 billion US dollars, and its growth rate will be significantly higher than Global economic growth.

According to the "2012-2016 China Packaging Industry Investment Strategy and In-depth Research Consultation Report" released by China Industry Research Network, China's packaging industry is developing rapidly. The total output value of the packaging industry has grown from 250 billion yuan in 2003 to about 1.2 trillion yuan in 2010. Yuan, the compound annual growth rate is 21%. As the global packaging industry shifts to Asia, especially to China, the trend predicts that China's total packaging output growth will accelerate in the next three to five years, with an annual growth rate of more than 21%, and will continue to be the world's second largest packaging product after the United States. Producing countries are even expected to surpass the United States.

China's packaging industry development status investment analysis According to international experience market research, the packaging industry can breed giant enterprises, and China's packaging enterprises are generally small. In this huge industry, small companies with core competitive advantages and ability to quickly replicate business models face opportunities for continued growth and are worthy of attention from investment decision makers.

China's packaging industry has a huge market capacity and continues to grow rapidly. In 2011, China's packaging industry market size is about 170 billion US dollars, accounting for 25% of the world. The average annual growth rate of the industry in 2002-09 is 20%, and it is conservatively estimated that it will maintain a growth rate of around 15% in the future.

According to market research, China's packaging enterprises are relatively small, and industry concentration will gradually increase. The packaging industry in developed countries has a high degree of concentration, and large packaging companies are deeply involved in all aspects of customer product development, design, logistics, etc., providing customers with comprehensive solutions. According to international experience, the packaging industry can breed giant enterprises. China's packaging industry is extremely fragmented. For example, the market share of the top 10 enterprises in the corrugated packaging industry is less than 8%. We judge that the market concentration of China's packaging industry will gradually increase, based on the feasibility study report: (1) the scale effect of the packaging industry is prominent, and the scale advantage of large enterprises will continue to strengthen; (2) the appreciation of the renminbi and the increase in labor costs will enable China to manufacture The industry will accelerate the upgrade, and the supporting packaging industry will also be upgraded. Small and medium-sized packaging plants will be forced to withdraw from the market; (3) The requirements for product packaging for consumption upgrades will also be upgraded, and the small and medium-sized packaging enterprises will also be squeezed; 4) The improvement of environmental protection requirements leads to continuous improvement of packaging materials and processes, such as the lightweight trend of beverage packaging, and some enterprises will be eliminated in the process of technological and equipment improvement; (5) Under the unique financial system of China, it is difficult for small enterprises. With external financing to expand production capacity, large companies, especially listed companies, are more likely to obtain low-cost funds for rapid expansion. In particular, listed companies can rely on over-raised huge funds to channel the rapid expansion.

Companies with unique competitive advantages and easy to replicate business models can grow sustainably. The trend of increasing industry concentration has begun. In this process, companies that have formed strong competitive advantages in certain segments and whose business models are easy to replicate have the potential to expand rapidly. Tech-Long and Corrugated in the beverage packaging machinery industry. The packaging industry's Meiyingsen and Hexing packaging have great growth potential.

Packaging products are an indispensable part of commodity circulation, and downstream involves food, beverage, electronics, home appliances, electromechanical and other industries. According to the volume, it can be divided into micro-packaging, light-packing, heavy-duty packaging, etc.; according to packaging materials, it can be divided into paper packaging, plastic packaging, metal packaging, glass packaging and other packaging, accounting for 39% and 30% respectively. , 18%, 7% and 6%. According to the statistics of the world packaging organization, the market size of the global packaging industry in 2009 was about 560 billion US dollars, with a compound growth rate of 5.7% in 2002-09. (Source: China Research Puhua Database)

As a manufacturing powerhouse in China, the market size of the packaging industry in the past 11 years is about 150 billion US dollars (World Packaging Association statistics), accounting for 22.5% of the world. Consumer goods are the downstream of the packaging industry, so the packaging industry and the total retail sales of consumer goods are more relevant. From 02 to 2009, China's total retail sales of consumer goods grew at an average annual rate of 16.9%, and the growth rate of the packaging industry was 21.9%. The trend predicts that China's total retail sales of consumer goods will continue to grow at a faster rate, and it is conservatively estimated that the packaging industry can maintain a growth rate of around 15%.

Concentration of the packaging industry will gradually increase the trend. The advanced level of a country's packaging industry is closely related to the country's economic development stage. The decisive factors include the concentration of downstream, the overall level of manufacturing, and the implementation of environmental protection requirements. The packaging industry in developing countries is relatively backward. Most companies simply provide customers with packaging products such as boxes, bottles and boxes. The concentration of packaging industry in developed countries is high, and large-scale packaging enterprises are deeply involved in the product design and manufacturing, material research and development, logistics and other aspects of the downstream manufacturing supply chain system, reflecting the high added value of comprehensive services. In this model, each packaging sub-sector has a large global enterprise. For example, the global large flexible packaging supplier Tetra Pak has revenues of $11.9 billion; Australian packaging giant Amcor has revenues of $8.55 billion; International Paper's 2009 packaging products sales of $8.9 billion; European large corrugated cardboard manufacturer Aisheng Ya's packaging revenue in 2008 was $5.1 billion. The concentration of the industry has increased to the general trend, and the growth prospects of the dominant enterprises are optimistic. Although China's corrugated packaging industry has a huge market, its concentration is low. The market share of the top 10 enterprises is less than 8%, while the market share of the top five enterprises in developed countries is 70-80%. The situation of low-end products in the industry has become more serious. There are about 16,000-20,000 carton factories in the country, most of which are local SMEs, with an average output of only 100-1.25 million flats per household. At present, there are more than 4,000 corrugated board production lines in the country, about 40% of which are low speed lines with a speed of about 50 meters, about 45% are medium speed lines of 80-150 meters, and about 15% of high speed lines above 150 meters. The national single-sided machine accounted for more than 50%. In addition, with the upgrading of the manufacturing industry, the requirements for corrugated packaging products are also increasing. Light weight, low weight and high strength are the main development trends. Most SMEs cannot produce products that meet the above requirements.

China Research Institute's industry research institute said that in the face of the big cake in the packaging market, in 2012, China's packaging companies did not show much advantage in the process of enterprise transformation. There are several factors contributing to this result: First, the blind transformation of the printing industry has caused the market in the packaging industry to become unbalanced. Packaging and printing are inseparable. However, in recent years, due to the development contradictions in the printing industry, the "hot" of the printing industry's transformation of the packaging industry has become increasingly fierce, especially in the past two years, it is even more popular. This has put some pressure on the development of the packaging industry. At the same time, in the process of transformation, some printing companies are completely blind, not compliant and developable, just following the “transformation wind”. Second, with the personalized development of packaging, packaging suppliers will pay more attention to personalized packaging, tracking and trading requirements and new labeling and coding technologies in 2012, while packaging buyers focus on consumer interests and new packaging materials. Material costs are a major factor in promoting people to develop innovative packaging solutions. There is no doubt that the personalized development of packaging has become one of the trends in the development of packaging today. Thirdly, the sluggish packaging market and the country's requirements for “greening” of packaging and printing have caused some packaging companies to “self-crisis”. In 2012, both the printing industry and the packaging industry, their markets have been sluggish, which is related to the slowdown in domestic economic growth and the increased risk of downside risks in the world economy. In June 2012, the national consumer price level (CPI) rose by 2.2% year-on-year, and the year-on-year increase was low in 29 months. From the ring point of view, the June CPI fell by 0.6%. In the first half of the year, CPI increased by 3.3% over the same period of 2011. In June, the national industrial producers' ex-factory price (PPI) fell by 2.1% year-on-year. The PPI showed a year-on-year negative growth for four consecutive months, reflecting the pressure of economic cooling.

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