Economic growth will decline in the second and third quarters
Wang Jun, a researcher at the China International Economic Exchange Center, said that the recent changes in China's economic leading index were peaking in November last year and then falling. It is expected that the composite index will stop rising in the first quarter. Now that the consensus index is still in the upward trend, the current index has turned heads down. It is expected that the economic growth rate will decline in the second and third quarter of this year.
Wang Jun said that from the police index reflecting the state of China's economy, China is in the yellow light district, close to the red light district. Although it has a lot to do with the low base of the Chinese economy in early 2009, it shows that the current focus of China's economic regulation and control has shifted to maintaining a stable economic operation.
Future exports will continue to maintain a strong rebound
Judging from China's exports, the China Center for International Economic Exchange reported that in 2010, exports saw a sharp improvement, and the recovery rate exceeded the rebound in 2009. Moreover, from the recent changes in the export leading index, the first quarter is still in a significant upward channel, which also indicates that China's exports in the second and third quarters of this year may still maintain a relatively strong rebound.
The rise in commodity prices will not play a leading role in the rise of CPI
Wang Jun said that from the perspective of the index in the first quarter, there are several characteristics. One is that the prices of bulk products have steadily oscillated upwards, and it should be said that the values ​​of January and March have reached a new high since the economic recovery at the end of 2008. The upward trend at the end of last year.
From a specific point of view, the composite index was 148.8 points in January and 159 points in February, a slight increase. In January 2009, the base was relatively low, and the year-on-year increase was relatively large. It rose very fast year-on-year, falling from January and rising in February and March.
On the other hand, Wang Jun said that the rise in commodity price volatility was also affected by the liquidity of the US dollar and the change of the US dollar index. The looser liquidity reflected the price of the entire international commodity. Moreover, the trend of the US dollar index has curbed the trend of commodity prices on the other hand, and the momentum has risen slightly in the first quarter. At the same time, the quality of economic recovery is not very high. There are some natural factors. Drought, hurricanes, earthquakes, etc. are rising, not unilaterally rising.
Wang Jun said that international commodity prices have increased the pressure of China's imported inflation to a certain extent, and strengthened inflation expectations. Moreover, from the long-term trend, the rise in commodity prices will certainly have a certain impact on domestic inflation, because these Oil, iron ore, non-ferrous metals, rising prices have increased the cost of domestic enterprises, promoted costs, and formed a new price increase factor, first to the domestic raw material market and then to the finished product market, the price of refined oil is increasing, And it has driven related coal, steel, metal, etc., and it has risen.
"The rise in commodity prices has exerted some pressure on domestic prices, but it still needs some time due to the transmission factor. It is not yet clearly reflected in the upstream prices and the prices of industrial products. This indirect impact will not rise CPI. Play a leading role." Wang Jun said.
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